RocketPolitics · Polymarket
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 24%. RocketScience's forecast is 25%, 0.1 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 24%
- Our forecast
- 25%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 4, 2026 (19d 19h)
- Volume
- $3,923,216
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- News: Neutral across 25 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- How California’s Ultrarich Are Trying to Stop the World’s First Billionaire Tax — nytimes.com
- California billionaire tax could lose even if voters approve it — msn.com
- California Wealth Tax Odds 2026 | California Billionaire Tax Predictions (Prop 40 California) — Action Network
- California's billionaire tax might now be dead on arrival, according to Polymarket and Kalshi odds — Yahoo Finance
- Google cofounder Sergey Brin is biggest donor to group opposing California’s proposed wealth tax; has spe — The Times of India
- California's once-popular billionaire tax might now be dead on arrival, according to Polymarket and Kalshi odds — will the billionaires get their way? — msn.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 24%. RocketScience forecasts 25% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?”?
Our call is NO at 25%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.