Prediction track record

Every resolved market is graded honestly against the call we published up to 24 hours before it resolved — never the last-minute call, when the answer is already obvious. Calls made less than 2 hours before resolution, and "Not sure" calls, are not counted.

Last 30 days: 1 of 1 graded calls were correct (100%) across 29 resolved markets.

Market	Our call	Forecast	Called	Outcome	Result
Bitcoin above 80,800 on October 15, 5AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	YES	—
Bitcoin above 80,000 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	YES	—
Bitcoin above 83,600 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 83,200 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 79,600 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	YES	—
Bitcoin above 82,400 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 82,800 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 83,000 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 82,200 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 81,400 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 83,400 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 82,600 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 82,000 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 80,200 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	YES	—
Bitcoin above 81,800 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 80,800 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 79,800 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	YES	—
Bitcoin above 81,000 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 81,200 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 80,600 on October 15, 2AM ET?	YES	61%	0h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 80,400 on October 15, 2AM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	YES	—
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 14?	NO	3%	2h	NO	✓
Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 14?	Not sure	60%	0h	YES	—
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 on October 14?	YES	99%	0h	YES	—
Bitcoin above 82,000 on October 14, 9PM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 81,200 on October 14, 9PM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	YES	—
Bitcoin above 82,400 on October 14, 9PM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	NO	—
Bitcoin above 80,000 on October 14, 9PM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	YES	—
Bitcoin above 80,200 on October 14, 9PM ET?	Not sure	50%	2h	YES	—