Crypto · Polymarket · Resolved

Bitcoin above 80,800 on October 15, 5AM ET?

This market resolved YES on Oct 15, 2026. 2 hours before that, RocketScience forecast 50% (market 50%) and called it Not sure: not graded (too close to resolution).

Outcome: YES
Our call: Not sure
Our forecast: 50%
Market then: 50%
Called: 2h before
Exchange: Polymarket

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Why we think this

News: Neutral across 6 recent articles.
Shock: the odds moved sharply on Oct 15, 2026; the forecast followed the market at once and older news was down-weighted.

Latest headlines

Bitcoin price drops near $80,800, testing key 5... — Pluang
Bitcoin Price Today Below $81000 LIVE: Experts Most Bullish Since 2025 As Whales Short $1.45B — CryptoRank
Bitcoin Price Hits $81K on Renewed Spot Demand, Leverage Reset — news.bitcoin.com
Bitcoin hits three-month high above $80,800 on renewed investor optimism — msn.com
BTC price range on Oct 15, 2026 at 1am EDT Prediction Market — Robinhood
BTC price on Oct 15, 2026 at 1am EDT Prediction Market — Robinhood

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Bitcoin above 80,800 on October 15, 5AM ET?”?

It resolved YES.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Bitcoin above 80,800 on October 15, 5AM ET?”?

Our call is Not sure at 50%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Oct 22, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 09:00 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.