RocketPolitics · Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
As of Oct 17, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 30%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 30%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Dec 31, 2026 (75d 20h)
- Volume
- $488,317
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 50 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- US War on Iran, Day 231: 1,500+ Killed in Gaza Since "Ceasefire" · eaworldview.com
- LIVE: Gaza ceasefire: Two Palestinians killed, four injured in Israeli attacks · news.az
- Israel-Iran Ceasefire Odds Fall to 45% · riotimesonline.com
- Lavrov Rejects Ukraine Ceasefire, Accuses Zelensky of Challenging Trump · kyivpost.com
- Over 340 Palestinian children killed in Gaza since ceasefire: Unicef · middleeasteye.net
- Gaza: 340 children killed despite ceasefire agreement - UNICEF · globalissues.org
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 30%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Dec 31, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-17 03:01 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.