Politics · Polymarket

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 42%. RocketScience's forecast is 41%, 1.2 points below the market, and our call is Not sure. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 42%
Our forecast: 41%
Call: Not sure
Signal: Hold
Closes: Nov 30, 2026 (46d 14h)
Volume: $564,788
Exchange: Polymarket

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Why we think this

News: Leans NO across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

Israeli attacks kill Palestinian, wound others in Gaza despite ceasefire deal — TRT World
Democrats demand escalation against Russia after Trump announces “energy ceasefire” — World Socialist Web Site
2026 Iran war | Oil, Explained, United States, Israel, Strait of Hormuz, Map, & Conflict — Britannica
UNRWA official warns Gaza conditions remain dire despite ceasefire — アラブニュース
Tracking America’s latest conflict: The Iran war timeline — Task & Purpose
Trump says Ukraine and Russia have agreed 'energy ceasefire' — BBC

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 42%. RocketScience forecasts 41% (Not sure), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?”?

Our call is Not sure at 41%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 30, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:31 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.