Politics · Kalshi

Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 92%. RocketScience's forecast is 93%, 0.3 points above the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 92%
Our forecast: 93%
Call: YES
Signal: Hold
Closes: Nov 10, 2026 (26d 5h)
Volume: $1,052
Exchange: Kalshi

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Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 12 recent articles.

Latest headlines

Republicans cannot lose more than two seats to keep control of the U.S. House, Democrats need to gain three for a majority — Ballotpedia News
NC State Fair 2026 | Inspectors putting all 94 rides through the test ahead of the fair's opening day — ABC11 News
Best Homeowners Insurance in Missouri for 2026 — U.S. News & World Report
With Americans in a Sour Mood, Democratic Voters Are More Engaged in Midterms — Pew Research Center
Trump’s Approval Rating Drops as Fewer Americans Are Confident in His Handling of the Economy, Other Issues — Pew Research Center
Midterm Elections: Who Is Winning the Race for Congress? Latest Data — The New York Times

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?”?

Traders on Kalshi price it at 92%. RocketScience forecasts 93% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?”?

Our call is YES at 93%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 10, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:31 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.