RocketCrypto · Kalshi
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $77500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — Below $77,500.00
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 55%. RocketScience's forecast is 44%, 10.6 points below the market, and our call is Not sure. That gap is big enough for a Buy NO signal.
- Market odds
- 55%
- Our forecast
- 44%
- Call
- Not sure
- Signal
- Buy NO
- Closes
- Nov 1, 2026 (16d 18h)
- Volume
- $5,798
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- Spot-price model: the live Coinbase price, the strike and the time left argue against YES.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will BTC trimmed mean be below $77500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — Below $77,500.00”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 55%. RocketScience forecasts 44% (Not sure), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will BTC trimmed mean be below $77500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — Below $77,500.00”?
Our call is Not sure at 44%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 1, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.