RocketCrypto · Kalshi
Will BTC trimmed mean be below $80000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — Below $80,000.00
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 88%. RocketScience's forecast is 77%, 10.2 points below the market, and our call is YES. That gap is big enough for a Buy NO signal.
- Market odds
- 88%
- Our forecast
- 77%
- Call
- YES
- Signal
- Buy NO
- Closes
- Nov 1, 2026 (16d 18h)
- Volume
- $5,429
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- Spot-price model: the live Coinbase price, the strike and the time left argue against YES.
- Shock: the odds moved sharply on Oct 15, 2026; the forecast followed the market at once and older news was down-weighted.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will BTC trimmed mean be below $80000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — Below $80,000.00”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 88%. RocketScience forecasts 77% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will BTC trimmed mean be below $80000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? — Below $80,000.00”?
Our call is YES at 77%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 1, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
More crypto predictions
- Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? 36%
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October? 33%
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in October? 15%
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October? 5%
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 15? 88%
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 15? 2%
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18? 2%
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 12-18? 4%
Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.