Politics · Polymarket

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

As of Oct 16, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 26%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.

Market odds: 26%
Our forecast: 🔒 Members
Call: 🔒 Members
Closes: Nov 4, 2026 (18d 5h)
Volume: $497,831
Exchange: Polymarket

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Why we think this

We weigh 56 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.

Latest headlines

Alaska Senate race heats up as Sullivan, Peltola clash over Iran war, fuel costs · indiatimes.com
Republicans Need to Win 4 of 8 Senate Races to Keep the Senate · lifenews.com
Dan Lanning needs 5 Oregon Ducks to be X-Factors to pull out win over Nebraska · autzenzoo.com
Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola: Latest Polls Ahead of Debate · newsweek.com
Dan + Shay Winning Weekend! · 995thewolf.com
Alaska Senate candidates clash over the Iran war, high prices and their times in office · nbcnews.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 26%.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?”?

Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-16 23:01 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.