RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 6%. RocketScience's forecast is 5%, 0.2 points below the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 6%
- Our forecast
- 5%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2026 (18d 19h)
- Volume
- $948
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Leans NO across 25 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- 'They're stealing from the poor': A major source of SNAP fraud robs recipients of millions — NPR
- US hopes diesel deal can 'soften' Moscow on peace talks, sources say — Reuters
- Trump suggests those who leak government information should ‘be shot’ — Al Jazeera
- Iran shifting tactics to step up attacks on shipping before US vote, officials say — Reuters
- Trump says he is ‘looking at’ firing US envoy to Greece after mounting reports of improper conduct — WBAY
- Conflict With Iran | Global Conflict Tracker — Council on Foreign Relations
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 6%. RocketScience forecasts 5% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026?”?
Our call is NO at 5%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 3, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.