Politics · Polymarket

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 74%. RocketScience's forecast is 77%, 3.3 points above the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 74%
Our forecast: 77%
Call: YES
Signal: Hold
Closes: Nov 4, 2026 (19d 19h)
Volume: $787,358
Exchange: Polymarket

Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗

Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

Trump attacks Mary Peltola at Wasilla rally as Senate race heats up — Your Alaska Link
Peltola raises $17M in Q3 as the hopes to oust Sullivan in Alaska — msn.com
Mary Peltola Leads Alaska Polls as Trump Schedules Rally for Dan Sullivan — Newsweek
Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 6 points in Alaska Senate polls as Trump heads to Wasilla rally — msn.com
Peltola Leads in Alaska but Senate Race a Cliffhanger — Newsmax
Trump campaigns in Alaska, where a new warning underscores the state’s energy challenges — ms.now

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 74%. RocketScience forecasts 77% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?”?

Our call is YES at 77%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

More politics predictions

All politics predictions →

Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.