RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll? — Republican party
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 30%. RocketScience's forecast is 32%, 1.5 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 30%
- Our forecast
- 32%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 6, 2026 (22d 7h)
- Volume
- $703
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- House control all but gone, top Republicans privately concede — politico.com
- 'Trust the process': Republicans struggle for closing argument before midterms — msn.com
- Republicans pull millions from two crucial House races latest glaring sign they're bracing for a blue wave — dailymail.com
- Republicans need evangelicals to turn out in the midterms. Faith leaders are sounding the alarm they may not — msn.com
- Trump in Arizona to support GOP candidates in close midterm races — Scripps News
- WATCH: Trump attacks Somali and Haitian immigrants while rallying for Ohio Republican candidates — PBS
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll? — Republican party”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 30%. RocketScience forecasts 32% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Republicans win white women in the exit poll? — Republican party”?
Our call is NO at 32%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 6, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:31 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.