RocketPolitics · Polymarket
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 4%. RocketScience's forecast is 4%, 0.1 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 4%
- Our forecast
- 4%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 4, 2026 (19d 19h)
- Volume
- $3,349,478
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- News: Neutral across 25 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- Steve Hilton blames California leaders for homelessness: 'It's actually a scandal' — msn.com
- California Elections: Who’s Leading In Prediction Markets? — Forbes
- Republican Steve Hilton faces long-shot odds of winning California gubernatorial race amid backlash — Wonderwall
- California Secretary of State Announces Results of 2026 California High School and Middle School Students Mock Election; For Governor, Xavier Becerra Captures 69.6% of the Vote With Steve Hilton Trailing at 30.3% — Sierra Sun Times
- Gubernatorial Candidate Steve Hilton Vows to Abolish the DMV, Lower Gas Prices and Taxes at Colton Town Hall — iecn.com
- Can This Brit Turn California Red? Steve Hilton Isn’t Holding Back — newsweek.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 4%. RocketScience forecasts 4% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?”?
Our call is NO at 4%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.