Politics · Polymarket

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 62%. RocketScience's forecast is 67%, 5.5 points above the market, and our call is YES. That gap is big enough for a Buy YES signal.

Market odds: 62%
Our forecast: 67%
Call: YES
Signal: Buy YES
Closes: Nov 4, 2026 (19d 19h)
Volume: $719,397
Exchange: Polymarket

Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗

Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

Ohio’s blue-collar voters in play as Democrats try to win back workers who backed Trump — firstpost.com
Sherrod Brown leads Ohio Senate race by 8 as Trump’s blue-collar coalition cracks — msn.com
Obama boosts support for Ohio Democrat in race for red Senate seat — The National News Desk
Rising food and fuel prices test Trump's support in Ohio as GOP defends Senate seat and governor's office — msn.com
If Democrats Win the Senate, They Cannot Mess Around — nytimes.com
Fox News predicts Democrats will win House in midterms for first time this cycle — msn.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 62%. RocketScience forecasts 67% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?”?

Our call is YES at 67%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.