Politics · Polymarket

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 63%. RocketScience's forecast is 67%, 4.5 points above the market, and our call is YES. That gap is big enough for a Buy YES signal.

Market odds: 63%
Our forecast: 67%
Call: YES
Signal: Buy YES
Closes: Nov 4, 2026 (19d 19h)
Volume: $1,680,412
Exchange: Polymarket

Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗

Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

Election Dispatches: Talarico Remains Ahead in Texas Senate Race, Polls Show, but His Lead Has Narrowed — The New York Times
Talarico to appear in CNN town hall amid tight Texas Senate race — msn.com
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Talarico Ahead In Texas Senate Race In 2 New Polls (Updated Daily) — Forbes
Can Democrats win a Texas Senate seat? — CNN
New Texas poll shows Democrats leading nearly all statewide races — WFAA
If Democrats Win the Senate, They Cannot Mess Around — nytimes.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 63%. RocketScience forecasts 67% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”?

Our call is YES at 67%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:31 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.