RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 32%. RocketScience's forecast is 31%, 2.0 points below the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 32%
- Our forecast
- 31%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 3, 2026 (19d 5h)
- Volume
- $811
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Likely NO across 8 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- Strait of Hormuz Remains Severely Restricted as Tanker Attacks Continue and Traffic Stays Near 10% of Normal — International Business Times Australia
- Geopolitics and World Politics Monthly, Issue 01 - The World Will Not Wait for Washington — Shanaka Anslem Perera | Substack
- Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Until November as Hormuz Tankers Burn — easternherald.com
- Iran, Oman Agree on Safe Transit Route Coordinates in Strait of Hormuz — caspiannews.com
- Iran’s Shipping Strikes Top a Dozen Amid Bid to 'Restore' Leverage —Crypto Punters Wager on Hormuz Reopen — Benzinga
- Crude oil exports via Hormuz at 33.7 million barrels this week, data shows — reuters.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 32%. RocketScience forecasts 31% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?”?
Our call is NO at 31%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 3, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.