Politics · Kalshi

Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 20 in Oct 2026?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 95%. RocketScience's forecast is 97%, 1.7 points above the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 95%
Our forecast: 97%
Call: YES
Signal: Hold
Closes: Nov 1, 2026 (17d 5h)
Volume: $2,166
Exchange: Kalshi

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Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 4 recent articles.
Shock: the odds moved sharply on Oct 15, 2026; the forecast followed the market at once and older news was down-weighted.

Latest headlines

Trump returns to North Carolina next week ahead of midterm elections — usatoday.com
Canadian Travel Boycott Of U.S. Continues—September Visits Down 29% Compared To 2024 — forbes.com
Here's a list of Donald Trump's Arizona visits — tucson.com
Trump Administration Considers Using Ships to Deport Immigrants — nytimes.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 20 in Oct 2026?”?

Traders on Kalshi price it at 95%. RocketScience forecasts 97% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 20 in Oct 2026?”?

Our call is YES at 97%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 1, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:29 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.