RocketPolitics · Polymarket
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 30%. RocketScience's forecast is 32%, 1.2 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 30%
- Our forecast
- 32%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 4, 2026 (19d 19h)
- Volume
- $680,054
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- News: Leans YES across 25 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- Michigan 2026 Election Odds: Senate, House, and Governor Races — covers.com
- How Trump’s tariffs and Iran war are becoming liabilities in Michigan’s Senate race — CNBC
- Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers on whether Iran war was a mistake: ‘We’ll find out’ — NBC News
- Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Talarico Ahead In Texas Senate Race In 2 New Polls (Updated Daily) — Forbes
- Michigan's El-Sayed Says Democrats Must Win Big to Beat Back Election Denial — hoodline.com
- Why an El-Sayed win in Michigan is important for Ocasio-Cortez — The Hill
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 30%. RocketScience forecasts 32% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?”?
Our call is NO at 32%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:31 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.