Politics · Polymarket

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 38%. RocketScience's forecast is 42%, 4.0 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 38%
Our forecast: 42%
Call: NO
Signal: Hold
Closes: Nov 4, 2026 (19d 19h)
Volume: $1,995,010
Exchange: Polymarket

Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗

Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

Election Dispatches: Talarico Remains Ahead in Texas Senate Race, Polls Show, but His Lead Has Narrowed — The New York Times
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Talarico Ahead In Texas Senate Race In 2 New Polls (Updated Daily) — Forbes
New Texas Senate poll shows Republicans gaining as early voting nears — USA Today
Democrat's lead shrinks in Texas Senate race ahead of early voting — El Paso Times
Poll: Democratic candidates lead Republicans among likely Harris County voters in top statewide races — Houston Public Media
Texas Dem candidate: ‘We definitely need Trump voters to win’ — cnn.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 38%. RocketScience forecasts 42% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”?

Our call is NO at 42%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.