RocketFinance · Polymarket
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 87%. RocketScience's forecast is 88%, 1.1 points above the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 87%
- Our forecast
- 88%
- Call
- YES
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 4, 2026 (19d 19h)
- Volume
- $52,834
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.
- Shock: the odds moved sharply on Oct 15, 2026; the forecast followed the market at once and older news was down-weighted.
Latest headlines
- RBA minutes give mixed messages, sparking debate over future interest rate hikes — brokernews.com.au
- The RBA keeps hiking interest rates – but are the rate rises actually working? — The Guardian
- Former RBA boss says interest rate hikes ‘won’t change much’ — The West Australian
- Unemployment at five-year high after nearly 40,000 jobs lost — ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation
- Australian employment falls in September, quashing rate hike risk — The Mighty 790 KFGO
- RBA on notice to hold off on rate rises as jobless rate hits five-year high — SMH.com.au
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 87%. RocketScience forecasts 88% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?”?
Our call is YES at 88%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.