Politics · Kalshi

Will at least 25,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election?

As of Oct 30, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 70%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.

Market odds: 70%
Our forecast: 🔒 Members
Call: 🔒 Members
Closes: Nov 29, 2026 (29d 15h)
Volume: $533
Exchange: Kalshi

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Why we think this

We weigh 24 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.

Latest headlines

Spain train collision kills at least 64 south of Madrid · ems1.com
At least 68 dead in train crash near Toledo, Spain · udaipurkiran.com
At least 68 dead in Spain high-speed train crash · samaa.tv
Spain Train Crash Kills at Least 68 · riotimesonline.com
Spain train crash: At least 68 killed, dozens injured · dw.com
Spain: At least 64 dead in high-speed train crash · timesofoman.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will at least 25,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election?”?

Traders on Kalshi price it at 70%.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will at least 25,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election?”?

Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 29, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-30 12:47 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.