Politics · Polymarket

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 80%. RocketScience's forecast is 79%, 0.5 points below the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 80%
Our forecast: 79%
Call: YES
Signal: Hold
Closes: Oct 31, 2026 (16d 14h)
Volume: $2,958,014
Exchange: Polymarket

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Why we think this

News: Leans NO across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

UN peacekeeping chief says major questions hang over southern Lebanon as UNIFIL exit nears — ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
Iraq’s Kurdistan Region Rattled by Iranian Drones as Militant Dispute Resumes — Substack
Trump announces Ukraine energy ceasefire with Russia, surprising Zelenskiy — Reuters
US threatens to suspend intel sharing, weapons purchases if Ukraine continues Russia energy strikes, sources say — WKOW
Iran Threatens AI Data Centers, Undersea Internet Cables: Prediction Market Weighs Likelihood — TradingView
52 of the most stupid things Donald Trump has ever said — Indy100 | News

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 80%. RocketScience forecasts 79% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?”?

Our call is YES at 79%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Oct 31, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:29 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.