RocketFinance · Kalshi
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in October? — Above 0.4%
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 6%. RocketScience's forecast is 5%, 0.8 points below the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 6%
- Our forecast
- 5%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 10, 2026 (26d 3h)
- Volume
- $29,372
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Likely YES across 22 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- September US Consumer Prices Rise as Expected, Core CPI Up, Year-Over-Year Rates Accelerate — Yahoo Finance
- Odds Of A Rate Hike Rise After The September CPI Report — seekingalpha.com
- US consumer prices accelerate in September on costlier petrol; core CPI firmer — The Business Times
- US CPI jumps 3.7%, raising Federal Reserve rate hike chances — msn.com
- September US Overall Consumer Prices Expected to Rise by 0.6%, Core Prices Up 0.2% — finance.yahoo.com
- Nasdaq falls nearly 2% as tech tumbles amid rise in Fed rate hike bets on hot CPI — ca.finance.yahoo.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in October? — Above 0.4%”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 6%. RocketScience forecasts 5% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in October? — Above 0.4%”?
Our call is NO at 5%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 10, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.