RocketFinance · Kalshi
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026? — Above 4.2 million
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 98%. RocketScience's forecast is 98%, 0.0 points below the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 98%
- Our forecast
- 98%
- Call
- YES
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 10, 2026 (26d 5h)
- Volume
- $4,300
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- The forecast tracks the de-noised market price; no strong outside evidence moves it yet.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026? — Above 4.2 million”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 98%. RocketScience forecasts 98% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026? — Above 4.2 million”?
Our call is YES at 98%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 10, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:31 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.