Politics · Polymarket

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

As of Nov 1, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 12%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.

Market odds: 12%
Our forecast: 🔒 Members
Call: 🔒 Members
Closes: Nov 3, 2026 (2d 13h)
Volume: $1,592,245
Exchange: Polymarket

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Why we think this

We weigh 19 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.

Latest headlines

US midterms: Trump skips Iowa, Kansas rallies, backs Republicans through phone campaign · indiatimes.com
If Republicans Win Tuesday | Blog For Iowa · blogforiowa.com
Back on! Trump to Visit Kansas, Iowa for Rallies · wmal.com
Trump Restores In-Person Rallies in Iowa and Kansas · theepochtimes.com
Trump Rallies in Kansas and Iowa Back On · iheart.com
Trump Resurrects Canceled Rallies in Iowa and Kansas · politicalwire.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 12%.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?”?

Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 3, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-11-01 10:00 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.