RocketFinance · Kalshi
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 2%. RocketScience's forecast is 2%, 0.1 points below the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 2%
- Our forecast
- 2%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 1, 2026 (16d 19h)
- Volume
- $4,275
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Leans NO across 1 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- What Happens If The Market Severely Punishes Tesla AND SpaceX at The Same Time? — finance.yahoo.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 2%. RocketScience forecasts 2% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026?”?
Our call is NO at 2%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 1, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.