Politics · Kalshi

Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

As of Nov 2, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 18%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.

Market odds: 18%
Our forecast: 🔒 Members
Call: 🔒 Members
Closes: Dec 15, 2026 (42d 17h)
Volume: $1,953
Exchange: Kalshi

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Why we think this

We weigh 25 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.

Latest headlines

Michigan Democrat backs Republican rival in Senate race split · businessday.co.za
Kamala Harris Warning Dems Impeachment Of Trump Not A Good Idea If They Win Majority · iheart.com
Kamala Harris on the 2026 Midterms…."Turn that Anger into Action," · politicaldog101.com
Former VP Kamala Harris speaks to Georgians ahead of election · wrdw.com
US Senate confirms Joshua Harris as envoy to Malaysia · freemalaysiatoday.com
Kamala Harris drops into Georgia to stump for Ossoff, down-ballot Democrats · timesfreepress.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?”?

Traders on Kalshi price it at 18%.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election?”?

Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.

When does this market close?

It closes on Dec 15, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-11-02 21:14 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.