Finance · Kalshi

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 4%. RocketScience's forecast is 3%, 1.5 points below the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 4%
Our forecast: 3%
Call: NO
Signal: Hold
Closes: Nov 6, 2026 (22d 4h)
Volume: $7,222
Exchange: Kalshi

Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗

Why we think this

News: Likely NO across 3 recent articles.

Latest headlines

Current Unemployment Rate and Other Jobs Report Findings — NerdWallet
Our economic outlook for the United States — Vanguard Corporate
Unemployment rates mixed in Illinois in August — beloitdailynews.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October?”?

Traders on Kalshi price it at 4%. RocketScience forecasts 3% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October?”?

Our call is NO at 3%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 6, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.