Politics · Kalshi

Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026?

As of Oct 30, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 38%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.

Market odds: 38%
Our forecast: 🔒 Members
Call: 🔒 Members
Closes: Dec 12, 2026 (43d 1h)
Volume: $1,941
Exchange: Kalshi

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Why we think this

We weigh 52 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.

Latest headlines

3 killed in helicopter collision that shut down part of an Oregon highway · dailyindependent.com
3 killed in helicopter collision that shut down part of Oregon highway · times-standard.com
3 killed in helicopter collision that shut down an Oregon highway · idahostatejournal.com
Route 5 shut down in Newbury following car crash · wcax.com
Team behind Stockport restaurant that shut down announce 'exciting' new Manchester venue · manchestereveningnews.co.uk
Pyotr Kochetkov, Hurricanes shut down struggling Blue Jackets · cincinnatisun.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026?”?

Traders on Kalshi price it at 38%.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026?”?

Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.

When does this market close?

It closes on Dec 12, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-30 12:47 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.