RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will there be more than 210 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? — Above 210
As of Nov 2, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 12%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 12%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Nov 10, 2026 (7d 16h)
- Volume
- $2,433
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 23 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Quad ministers call for freedom of navigation in Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab · sana.sy
- One strait, one tank, one drought · philstar.com
- Quad ministers call for navigational freedom in Hormuz, Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid West Asia conflict · aninews.in
- Taiwan thanks allies for supporting Strait peace · taipeitimes.com
- MEED | Adnoc Onshore allows more time for Bab gas cap well tie-in bids · meed.com
- Yemeni Government Launches Operation to Secure Bab al-Mandab · globalarabnetwork.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will there be more than 210 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? — Above 210”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 12%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will there be more than 210 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? — Above 210”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 10, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-11-02 21:14 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.