RocketPolitics · Polymarket
Democratic Senate odds <58% on October 23?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 6%. RocketScience's forecast is 6%, 0.0 points below the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 6%
- Our forecast
- 6%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Oct 22, 2026 (6d 22h)
- Volume
- –
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- News: Neutral across 6 recent articles.
- Shock: the odds moved sharply on Oct 15, 2026; the forecast followed the market at once and older news was down-weighted.
Latest headlines
- Iowa Senate Odds 2026: The Tie Kalshi Shouldn't Trust — OddsShopper
- New Texas Senate poll signals shift for GOP as early voting nears — msn.com
- Election Dispatches:: Trump Rallies in Nebraska to Try to Lift Republican Incumbents — The New York Times
- Mason-Dixon poll: Ashley Moody hits 50%, Angie Nixon 40%, and Republicans back the Senator 91% to 3% — Florida Politics
- Election Odds: Midterms, 2028 and Primaries — defirate.com
- 2026 Senate Election: Consensus Forecast — 270toWin.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Democratic Senate odds <58% on October 23?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 6%. RocketScience forecasts 6% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Democratic Senate odds <58% on October 23?”?
Our call is NO at 6%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 22, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 15:16 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.