Politics · Polymarket

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 28%. RocketScience's forecast is 30%, 2.8 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 28%
Our forecast: 30%
Call: NO
Signal: Hold
Closes: Oct 28, 2026 (12d 18h)
Volume: $7,469,633
Exchange: Polymarket

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Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

Netanyahu warns Palestinians against attacks ahead of Israeli election — yahoo.com
Netanyahu says he is not seeking to attack Iran again before Israel election — Reuters
Netanyahu's dilemma: Iran escalation risks handing election win to Eisenkot — msn.com
Latest poll puts Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu in Israel PM race — Daily Sabah
Netanyahu Admits Egypt's Intelligence Chief Landed in Israel Before October 7 — Haaretz
Trump may endorse Netanyahu. But loving Israel is not the same as loving Bibi. — msn.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 28%. RocketScience forecasts 30% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?”?

Our call is NO at 30%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Oct 28, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:29 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.