Politics · Polymarket

Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 16%. RocketScience's forecast is 17%, 0.6 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 16%
Our forecast: 17%
Call: NO
Signal: Hold
Closes: Oct 22, 2026 (6d 22h)
Volume: –
Exchange: Polymarket

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Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 3 recent articles.
Shock: the odds moved sharply on Oct 15, 2026; the forecast followed the market at once and older news was down-weighted.

Latest headlines

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Election Odds: Midterms, 2028 and Primaries — defirate.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 16%. RocketScience forecasts 17% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Democratic Senate odds >66% on October 23?”?

Our call is NO at 17%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Oct 22, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 15:16 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.