RocketPolitics · Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 98%. RocketScience's forecast is 98%, 0.2 points below the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 98%
- Our forecast
- 98%
- Call
- YES
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Oct 16, 2026 (18h 35m)
- Volume
- $1,932,699
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- News: Likely NO across 25 recent articles.
- Shock: the odds moved sharply on Oct 14, 2026; the forecast followed the market at once and older news was down-weighted.
Latest headlines
- Iran Says It Will Not Back Down Without Securing Its Demands, As War With The US Continues — UrduPoint
- Asia Crude and Fuel Imports Recover, Still Shy of Pre-Iran War Levels: Russell — EnergyNow.com
- Saudis launch new strikes on Houthis; Iran-backed group threatens U.S. if it joins in — CBS News
- 2026 Iran war | Oil, Explained, United States, Israel, Strait of Hormuz, Map, & Conflict — Britannica
- Iran dismisses US reply to Hormuz proposal, Saudi airports hit — The New Arab
- Tracking America’s latest conflict: The Iran war timeline — Task & Purpose
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 98%. RocketScience forecasts 98% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?”?
Our call is YES at 98%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 16, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 09:09 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.