RocketPolitics · Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 97%. RocketScience's forecast is 97%, 0.3 points below the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 97%
- Our forecast
- 97%
- Call
- YES
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Oct 22, 2026 (6d 14h)
- Volume
- –
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- News: Likely NO across 25 recent articles.
- Shock: the odds moved sharply on Oct 15, 2026; the forecast followed the market at once and older news was down-weighted.
Latest headlines
- Israeli Forces Kill Six Palestinians Across Gaza, Hamas Says Ceasefire Violations Continue: 18 outlets compared — NewsCord
- USO, TPET, BATL Plunge Premarket As US-Iran Ceasefire Drags Oil Back Below $100 — Analysts See Lingering Shipping Risks — Stocktwits
- Failure to activate Hormuz fertilizer plan could trigger food crisis, UN official says — The Standard (HK)
- Saudis launch new strikes on Houthis; Iran-backed group threatens U.S. if it joins in — CBS News
- Kuwait’s KPC Signs $16 Billion Lease and Leaseback Deal for Oil Pipeline Network — EnergyNow.com
- Iran dismisses US reply to Hormuz proposal, Saudi airports hit — The New Arab
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 97%. RocketScience forecasts 97% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?”?
Our call is YES at 97%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 22, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:28 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.