RocketPolitics · Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 88%. RocketScience's forecast is 88%, 0.4 points below the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 88%
- Our forecast
- 88%
- Call
- YES
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Oct 22, 2026 (6d 14h)
- Volume
- –
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- News: Leans NO across 25 recent articles.
- Shock: the odds moved sharply on Oct 15, 2026; the forecast followed the market at once and older news was down-weighted.
Latest headlines
- Israeli Forces Kill Six Palestinians Across Gaza, Hamas Says Ceasefire Violations Continue: 18 outlets compared — NewsCord
- Israeli enemy continues violating ceasefire agreement, targets towns of Shaqra, Beit Yahoun in southern Lebanon — www.saba.ye
- Trump claims fallen soldiers said 'we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon' — ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
- 2026 Iran war | Oil, Explained, United States, Israel, Strait of Hormuz, Map, & Conflict — Britannica
- Iran dismisses US reply to Hormuz proposal, Saudi airports hit — The New Arab
- Tracking America’s latest conflict: The Iran war timeline — Task & Purpose
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 88%. RocketScience forecasts 88% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?”?
Our call is YES at 88%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 22, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
More politics predictions
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? 92%
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? 11%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 30%
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House 9%
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House 63%
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? 25%
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? 66%
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 15%
Last updated 2026-10-15 08:28 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.