Politics · Polymarket

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 62%. RocketScience's forecast is 63%, 1.1 points above the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 62%
Our forecast: 63%
Call: YES
Signal: Hold
Closes: Oct 25, 2026 (10d 14h)
Volume: $572,128
Exchange: Polymarket

Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗

Why we think this

News: Leans YES across 15 recent articles.

Latest headlines

SNS rally in Kragujevac today at Jezero Hall — srpske.rs
Vulin presidential bid in Serbia, Serbian World rally — srpske.rs
North Mitrovica: police clear Technical School hall — srpske.rs
Vucic Announces Novi Sad Rally, Eyes 400,000-Vote Margin — srpske.rs
Aleksandar Vučić resigns as Serbian president, but he already has his next job in sight — msn.com
Serbia’s Longtime Leader Looks to Extend His Influence by Swapping Posts — nytimes.com

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 62%. RocketScience forecasts 63% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?”?

Our call is YES at 63%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Oct 25, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

More politics predictions

All politics predictions →

Last updated 2026-10-15 08:29 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.