RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will Ashley Hinson's Iowa Senate margin be larger than Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate margin in the November 3, 2026 general election?
As of Oct 24, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 57%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 57%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Dec 7, 2026 (43d 16h)
- Volume
- $6,853
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 8 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Ashley Hinson shows Republicans' midterm balancing act as Trump heads to Iowa to boost turnout · stardem.com
- Dem ad says Iowa's Rep. Ashley Hinson is $8 million richer after joining Congress. That's misleading. – PolitiFact · politifact.com
- Live updates: Trump to rally for Ashley Hinson and other GOP candidates in Iowa · nbcnews.com
- Trump rallying with Senate hopeful Ashley Hinson in Iowa as she pledges to push back on White House · cbsnews.com
- GOP Senate hopeful Ashley Hinson balances standing by Trump and standing up to him in Iowa · nbcnews.com
- Ashley Hinson shows Republicans' midterm balancing act as Trump comes to boost Iowa turnout · goskagit.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Ashley Hinson's Iowa Senate margin be larger than Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate margin in the November 3, 2026 general election?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 57%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Ashley Hinson's Iowa Senate margin be larger than Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate margin in the November 3, 2026 general election?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Dec 7, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-24 22:22 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.