Politics · Kalshi

Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026? — 3 to 9

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 82%. RocketScience's forecast is 84%, 2.1 points above the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 82%
Our forecast: 84%
Call: YES
Signal: Hold
Closes: Nov 1, 2026 (17d 5h)
Volume: $960
Exchange: Kalshi

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Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

Prosecutor Lazić: Justified question of whether Vučić pardoned "loyalists" — vreme.com
Trump pardons ‘wrongly charged’ Alaska business owners on the spot during midterm rally — AL.com
Trump rally brings pardons, promises and endorsements to Wasilla — Alaska Public Media
Trump pardons 2 auto workers on stage during rally in Alaska — CBS News
Trump pardons diesel mechanics for Clean Air Act violations at Alaska rally — The Hill
Trump Loses It Over 'Ungrateful' Guy He Pardoned — HuffPost

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026? — 3 to 9”?

Traders on Kalshi price it at 82%. RocketScience forecasts 84% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026? — 3 to 9”?

Our call is YES at 84%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 1, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:29 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.