RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will Donald Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election before Oct 26, 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 22%. RocketScience's forecast is 22%, 0.5 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 22%
- Our forecast
- 22%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Oct 26, 2026 (11d 4h)
- Volume
- $514
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Leans YES across 25 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- Lula’s government in Brazil lowers fuel prices ahead of runoff vote against Flávio Bolsonaro — Toronto Star
- Brazilian Judge Issues Arrest Warrant for Eduardo Bolsonaro, Brother of a Presidential Candidate — U.S. News & World Report
- Bolsonaro wins first round of Brazilian presidential election, as Trump-backed candidates continue red wave — Fox News
- Trump's Remarks on Brazil Election Show Lula Is Isolated, Says Bolsonaro — usnews.com
- Daniel DePetris: Brazil’s elections appear to be another win for Donald Trump — chicagotribune.com
- Tropical storm threat churns planning for Georgia-Alabama game with Trump set to attend — KSAT
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Donald Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election before Oct 26, 2026?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 22%. RocketScience forecasts 22% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Donald Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election before Oct 26, 2026?”?
Our call is NO at 22%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 26, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:29 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.