RocketPolitics · Polymarket
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
As of Oct 24, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 5%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 5%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Oct 26, 2026 (1d 5h)
- Volume
- $1,309,412
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 26 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Mourinho, Mbappe defend Vinicius after Madrid fans boo Brazilian in Leipzig win · vanguardngr.com
- Lula, Bolsonaro hold final rallies ahead of Brazil election · thepeninsulaqatar.com
- Tens of thousands of Lula supporters rally on eve of Brazilian election runoff · theguardian.com
- Corruption is a top concern for Brazilian voters ahead of Lula-Bolsonaro runoff · macaudailytimes.com.mo
- Brazilian authorities investigate hospital where 8 children have died this year · nypost.com
- Chinese carmakers drive surge in robots on Brazilian factory floors · brazilsun.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 5%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 26, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-24 22:22 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.