RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro debate before the Brazil presidential runoff? — Before Oct 25, 2026
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 92%. RocketScience's forecast is 95%, 3.6 points above the market, and our call is YES. That gap is big enough for a Buy YES signal.
- Market odds
- 92%
- Our forecast
- 95%
- Call
- YES
- Signal
- Buy YES
- Closes
- Oct 25, 2026 (9d 18h)
- Volume
- $16,785
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- Brazil election 2026: Catholics favour Lula as evangelicals back Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of runoff — msn.com
- Lula's government in Brazil lowers fuel prices ahead of runoff vote against Flávio Bolsonaro — The Killeen Daily Herald
- Third-place finisher in Brazil election endorses Bolsonaro for runoff against Lula — The Mighty 790 KFGO
- Flávio Bolsonaro’s advance in Brazil’s election is grim jolt for climate campaigners — AOL.com
- Trump ally Flávio Bolsonaro beats Lula in Brazil’s first round, setting up presidential runoff — msn.com
- Flávio’s surprise first-round election win highlights rapid rise of Brazil’s House of Bolsonaro — AOL.ca
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro debate before the Brazil presidential runoff? — Before Oct 25, 2026”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 92%. RocketScience forecasts 95% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro debate before the Brazil presidential runoff? — Before Oct 25, 2026”?
Our call is YES at 95%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 25, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:28 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.