RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 2%. RocketScience's forecast is 2%, 0.2 points below the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 2%
- Our forecast
- 2%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Nov 1, 2026 (16d 19h)
- Volume
- $3,391
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Likely NO across 25 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- Watch: Hegseth gets interrupted by back-to-back-to-back-to-back protesters in wild conference moment — msn.com
- Pete Hegseth Jokes as Multiple Protesters Call Him 'War Criminal' at Army Conference — military.com
- DOJ Begs Judge to Ignore Hegseth as She Considers Making Him Testify — msn.com
- Amid leadership shakeup, Hegseth addresses Army convention Amid leadership shakeup, Hegseth addresses Army convention — thehill.com
- Hegseth heckled by anti-war protesters at Army conference — msn.com
- Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth faces hecklers, interruptions at annual Army expo — thv11.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 2%. RocketScience forecasts 2% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?”?
Our call is NO at 2%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 1, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
More politics predictions
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? 92%
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? 11%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 30%
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House 9%
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House 63%
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? 25%
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? 66%
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 15%
Last updated 2026-10-15 08:29 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.