RocketFinance · Kalshi
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 7%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 7%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Nov 1, 2026 (17h 38m)
- Volume
- $3,805
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 275 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Spider Digital Technology Ltd. and Starlink AI Acquisition Corporation Announce Definitive Business Combination Agreement · manilatimes.net
- The Case Against a SpaceX and Tesla Merger · fool.com
- Elon Musk's favorite ticker is free for taking in a SpaceX-Tesla deal · moneycontrol.com
- Crypto Traders Gain Round-The-Clock Access To Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) And SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) Through New PrimeXBT Futures · foreignpolicyjournal.com
- Great News for Tesla Stock Investors as a Merger with SpaceX is More Likely · fool.com
- Why SpaceX Stock Dropped Today | The Motley Fool · fool.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026?”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 7%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Nov 1, 2026?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 1, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-31 11:00 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.