RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? — Before Dec 1, 2026
As of Oct 24, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 5%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 5%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Dec 1, 2026 (37d 16h)
- Volume
- $11,563
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 18 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Britain, Oman agree on need to open Strait of Hormuz · chinadaily.com.cn
- War fears grow as tankers hit in Strait of Hormuz · jamaica-gleaner.com
- Trump wants to rename Hormuz to Trump Strait · en.apa.az
- Strait Of Hormuz Ship Attacks Reach New High In · marinelink.com
- Iran says seven tankers were damaged in Strait of Hormuz · theshillongtimes.com
- Iran says 7 oil tankers attacked in Strait of Hormuz · japantoday.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? — Before Dec 1, 2026”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 5%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? — Before Dec 1, 2026”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Dec 1, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
More politics predictions
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? crowd 92%
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House crowd 8%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? crowd 28%
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? crowd 8%
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House crowd 66%
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? crowd 82%
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? crowd 66%
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? crowd 14%
Last updated 2026-10-24 22:22 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.