Finance · Polymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 26%. RocketScience's forecast is 29%, 3.5 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 26%
Our forecast: 29%
Call: NO
Signal: Hold
Closes: Oct 29, 2026 (13d 18h)
Volume: $9,431,185
Exchange: Polymarket

Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗

Why we think this

News: Likely YES across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

CPI Pressures Markets And Fed Reserve's Move On Interest Rates — seekingalpha.com
Inflation uptick puts pressure on Fed to hike again — americanbanker.com
Citi turns hawkish on Fed after inflation surprise, expects December rate hike — miamiherald.com
Fed hike odds rise to 90% as markets price first rate increase since 2023 — scanx.trade
Global market: Citi expects Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in December after hot US inflation data — msn.com
Euro plunges to 17-month low as hot US inflation fuels Fed rate hike bets — FXStreet

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 26%. RocketScience forecasts 29% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?”?

Our call is NO at 29%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Oct 29, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:29 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.