RocketFinance · Kalshi
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Hike 25bps
As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 28%. RocketScience's forecast is 29%, 1.1 points above the market, and our call is NO. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.
- Market odds
- 28%
- Our forecast
- 29%
- Call
- NO
- Signal
- Hold
- Closes
- Oct 28, 2026 (13d 8h)
- Volume
- $591,748
- Exchange
- Kalshi
Open the live chart Trade on Kalshi ↗
Why we think this
- News: Neutral across 7 recent articles.
Latest headlines
- Gold Stabilizes Near $4140 as U.S. Interest Rate Hike Fears Resurface — وكالة صدى نيوز
- Fed's Collins warns inflation could be 'notably' higher after backing rate hike — cnbc.com
- Federal Reserve rate hike reflects new world of sticky inflation and faster growth — apnews.com
- ‘Elevated Uncertainty’ Prompts Fed to Hike Rates — nahb.org
- Trump Demands 1% Rates, Federal Reserve Hikes Rates Instead — seekingalpha.com
- How the Federal Reserve rate hike shapes consumer loans — finance.yahoo.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Hike 25bps”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 28%. RocketScience forecasts 29% (NO), updated Oct 15, 2026.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Hike 25bps”?
Our call is NO at 29%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.
When does this market close?
It closes on Oct 28, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:28 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.