RocketPolitics · Kalshi
Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026? — Above 40
As of Oct 26, 2026, traders on Kalshi price this market at 4%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
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Why we think this
- We weigh 25 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- Iran says 7 oil tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as fears grow of a return to war · iranherald.com
- No offer made to US, no proposal sent to Pakistan mediator on Strait of Hormuz reopening: Iranian Media rejects reports · iranherald.com
- CENTCOM commander visits Strait of Hormuz, says transit routes 'free and clear' of Iranian mines · ianslive.in
- CENTCOM chief visits Strait of Hormuz amid 'milestone' of crude oil exports - Israel & Jewish News · jns.org
- IRGC: Two Unauthorized Tankers Explode in Strait of Hormuz After Mine Strikes, Crews Abandon Ships · islamicinvitationturkey.com
- October records highest number of ship attacks in Strait of Hormuz · indiatimes.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026? — Above 40”?
Traders on Kalshi price it at 4%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026? — Above 40”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 3, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
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Last updated 2026-10-26 10:00 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.