Politics · Polymarket

Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

As of Oct 15, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 96%. RocketScience's forecast is 95%, 0.5 points below the market, and our call is YES. The gap is too small to act on, so the signal is Hold.

Market odds: 96%
Our forecast: 95%
Call: YES
Signal: Hold
Closes: Nov 4, 2026 (19d 19h)
Volume: $576,000
Exchange: Polymarket

Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗

Why we think this

News: Likely NO across 25 recent articles.

Latest headlines

UN official warns of looming food crisis as Hormuz fertiliser plan stalls — Al Jazeera
UN urges US and Iran to agree on fertilizer transit through Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera — UA.NEWS
Iran Says Deal on Strait of Hormuz is Close But Will Not Open the Waterway by Itself — EnergyNow.com
Oil Prices Drop as Investors Weigh Potential Hormuz Deal Between Iran, Gulf States — EnergyNow
Middle East oil exports plunge as Houthi attacks disrupt Hormuz shipping — TRT World
Failure to activate Hormuz fertilizer plan could trigger food crisis, UN official says — Reuters

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds for “Will there be no Hormuz agreement?”?

Traders on Polymarket price it at 96%. RocketScience forecasts 95% (YES), updated Oct 15, 2026.

What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will there be no Hormuz agreement?”?

Our call is YES at 95%. We say YES at 60% or more, NO at 40% or less, and Not sure in between.

When does this market close?

It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).

How is the forecast made?

We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.

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Last updated 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC. Forecasts are for research only, not financial advice.