RocketFinance · Polymarket
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
As of Oct 24, 2026, traders on Polymarket price this market at 32%. RocketScience has a live forecast and a YES / NO call on it, updated the moment the news or the odds move. Sign up free to see today's picks, or go Pro for every call.
- Market odds
- 32%
- Our forecast
- 🔒 Members
- Call
- 🔒 Members
- Closes
- Nov 4, 2026 (10d 6h)
- Volume
- $81,291
- Exchange
- Polymarket
Open the live chart Trade on Polymarket ↗
Why we think this
- We weigh 26 stored news events for this market, the live order book and, for crypto, a spot-price model. The reasoning and the full story are for Pro members.
Latest headlines
- More Good News for Republicans in That MN Senate Race · redstate.com
- Trump orders lawsuit to block Alaska Senate result if Republicans lose · japantoday.com
- State Senate control likely safe for Republicans but Democrats aim to make gains · suncommercial.com
- How John Fetterman could save republicans if Democrats win the Senate. · investmentwatchblog.com
- MIDTERM BATTLE: Trump Heads To Iowa As Republicans Fight To Defend Senate And House Seats · theyeshivaworld.com
- How Republicans lost the map battle · stlamerican.com
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for “Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?”?
Traders on Polymarket price it at 32%.
What is RocketScience's prediction for “Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?”?
Our forecast and call on this market are for members. Sign up free to see today's picks. Every call is YES or NO: YES when our own forecast is 50% or more.
When does this market close?
It closes on Nov 4, 2026 (UTC).
How is the forecast made?
We start from the live exchange price, filter out noise, add the direction of recent news (and a spot-price model for crypto), and re-forecast instantly when the odds jump.
More finance predictions
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? crowd 94%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? crowd 6%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? crowd 6%
- GTA 6 launch postponed again? crowd 3%
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? crowd 91%
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? crowd 8%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? crowd 10%
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October? crowd 5%
Last updated 2026-10-24 22:22 UTC. Forecasts are for information only, not advice. Do your own research.